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Nigeria Non-Oil Export Data Rises to N3.17tn, as Data Gaps Fuel Debate

Nigeria’s non-oil exports hit N3.17tn in Q1 2025, but stakeholders warn that data gaps and informal trade continue to undermine accurate reporting.

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Nigeria’s non-oil exports hit N3.17tn in Q1 2025, but stakeholders warn that data gaps and informal trade continue to undermine accurate reporting

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Nigeria’s non-oil export data rose sharply to N3.17 trillion in Q1 2025, marking a 78.07% year-on-year increase, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Also read: Oil crash hits Nigeria’s budget

However, stakeholders warn that the reported growth may underrepresent the true scale of the country’s non-oil trade due to widespread informal cross-border transactions that remain undocumented.

The value of non-oil exports surged from N1.78 trillion in Q1 2024 to N3.17 trillion in Q1 2025, contributing 15.38% to total exports—up from 9.28% the previous year.

The data also showed continued upward momentum since Q4 2023, driven largely by agricultural goods, which led the sector with N1.7 trillion, followed by manufacturing exports at N294.43 billion.

While the oil sector faces persistent volatility, non-oil trade has expanded nearly eight times faster. However, concerns are growing that Nigeria’s trade statistics do not reflect the full picture, especially with the informal sector playing a dominant role.

“More than 50% of our non-oil exports are informal and go unrecorded,” said Dr Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE).

A notable concern is Nigeria’s exports to African countries, which declined by 9.19% to N1.85 trillion in Q1 2025. Analysts argue this drop is misleading due to the informal nature of intra-African trade, where goods often cross borders without documentation.

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) estimates at least \$31.8 million in unrecorded informal exports occurred monthly across states such as Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, and Lagos in 2024.

NEPC Executive Director, Nonye Ayeni, explained that these undocumented transactions represent a vital part of the economy that supports livelihoods and regional trade.

> “We’re working to mainstream informal trade so that these activities are officially recognised and captured,” Ayeni said.

A 2022 report by Free Trade Nigeria noted that informal trade accounts for 30–40% of total intra-African trade, often involving semi-processed goods and agricultural commodities.

In West Africa alone, informal trade comprises up to 90% of employment and 50% of GDP in some countries.

Stakeholders like Yusuf argue that red tape and inaccessible documentation procedures drive many small-scale exporters away from formal channels. Exporters from rural areas, such as Saki in Oyo State, often face impractical logistics, with documentation centers located far from the production zones.

“Unless we simplify export procedures at the borders, informal trade will continue to dominate,” Yusuf noted.

Many of Nigeria’s borders remain closed or poorly managed, with only a few operational such as Seme in the southwest and Maradi in the north. This leaves traders with few options other than informal crossings.

Smuggling, particularly of petroleum products, is also muddying the export data landscape. “PMS sells at around N1,500 per litre in Benin Republic compared to N900–N1,000 in Nigeria, increasing smuggling incentives,” Yusuf warned.

President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Gabriel Idahosa, echoed Yusuf’s concerns. He explained that only large firms and bank-financed exporters are captured in the data, while daily informal exports across land and sea remain invisible.

“There’s not much the government can do short-term. Informal trade is part of everyday life in developing economies,” Idahosa said.

Still, he acknowledged the need for customs modernisation and digital tracking systems. “If we had rail links and equipped border checkpoints, formalising trade would become easier,” he said.

Idahosa suggested that improved infrastructure and real-time data collection systems could gradually integrate informal exports into the official economic framework.

The NEPC and NBS have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at improving the documentation of informal cross-border trade. Ayeni confirmed that collaborations are ongoing with the Central Bank of Nigeria and other agencies to bridge the data gap.

“We’re committed to ensuring that Nigeria’s non-oil export numbers not only grow but also reflect the actual trade happening across the country,” Ayeni stated.

Also read: Petrol Prices Soar Again

As Nigeria continues to diversify away from oil, getting accurate non-oil export data is critical. Stakeholders are calling for simplified processes, border infrastructure upgrades, and customs reform to close the significant data gaps that threaten to undermine one of Nigeria’s fastest-growing economic sectors.

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TotalEnergies, AMNI Approve $800m Ima Gas Project

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TotalEnergies and Nigerian independent energy company AMNI International have taken the Final Investment Decision on the $800 million Ima Gas Project, more than five decades after the gas field was discovered.

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The Ima Gas Project, located in shallow waters across Oil Mining Leases 112 and 117 near Bonny Island, Rivers State, is expected to begin production in 2028 and reach a plateau of 350 million cubic feet of gas per day.

The development is expected to play a major role in supplying feed gas to Nigeria LNG, with the Ima field projected to provide about one-third of the additional gas required for the ongoing Train 7 expansion.

Train 7 is expected to increase Nigeria LNG’s liquefaction capacity from 22 million tonnes per annum to 30 million tonnes per annum, strengthening Nigeria’s capacity to process and export liquefied natural gas.

The Ima field was discovered in 1973 but remained undeveloped for more than 50 years. The Final Investment Decision provides the commercial and financial basis for finally developing the long-dormant resource.

Under the development plan, TotalEnergies will operate the project with a 40 per cent interest, while AMNI will hold the remaining 60 per cent.

The field will be developed using a single offshore platform connected to Nigeria LNG’s facility on Bonny Island through a 22-kilometre pipeline.

TotalEnergies said its investment in the project is more than $600 million, while the Federal Government described the overall Final Investment Decision as an $800 million investment.

At the FID signing ceremony in Abuja, TotalEnergies Exploration and Production Nigeria Managing Director, Mathieu Bouyer, described the decision as the culmination of a development process that had stretched across several decades.

He said the project reflected increased confidence in Nigeria’s investment environment and highlighted reforms targeting the non-associated gas sector as part of the factors that helped make the development commercially viable.

President Bola Tinubu welcomed the investment, saying the project demonstrated the potential of reforms introduced to reduce the cost and time required to develop oil and gas projects.

The President said the government had introduced incentives aimed specifically at unlocking onshore and shallow-water gas projects that had remained undeveloped for years.

He said the Ima development would create opportunities for Nigerian businesses, engineers, technicians and contractors, while generating jobs, economic activity in host communities and additional export earnings.

The project is also expected to have a strong Nigerian content component. TotalEnergies said all key contractors for the development would be Nigerian companies, while about 60 per cent of the workforce during the development phase is expected to come from host communities.

The development will incorporate measures aimed at reducing emissions. TotalEnergies said the platform would receive electricity from shore, operate without routine flaring and use permanent methane detection and monitoring systems.

The Federal Government said the project is part of efforts to turn Nigeria’s large natural gas reserves into productive assets capable of supporting industrialisation, energy supply, jobs and export earnings.

Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Olu Verheijen, said the Ima development illustrated the importance of creating commercial and investment conditions that allow previously stranded resources to be developed.

The government also noted that Nigerian financial institutions arranged 77 per cent of the project’s financing, further highlighting the participation of domestic financial institutions in the development.

For Nigeria LNG, the project comes as the company continues work on the Train 7 expansion, which is designed to increase the Bonny Island plant’s liquefaction capacity and strengthen the country’s position in the global LNG market.

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Adron Homes unveils Ile-Ife housing plan ahead of Olojo 2026

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Adron Homes unveils plans for an Ile-Ife Premium Estate at the 11th Olojo Festival, linking housing development with culture and tourism (more…)

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Dangote Group Plans $45bn Expansion, Targets $100bn Revenue

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The Dangote Group is pursuing a $45bn investment programme across its businesses as it targets annual revenue of $100bn by 2030, with Dangote Cement expected to play a major role in funding the conglomerate’s next phase of expansion.

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The group’s expansion strategy covers cement, refining, fertiliser, gas, infrastructure and other industrial businesses as it seeks to increase production capacity and strengthen its presence across African markets.

Dangote Cement, described as the group’s largest cash-generating business, is targeting an increase in annual production capacity from its current 55 million tonnes to more than 80 million tonnes as part of the growth programme.

The cement company said its expansion strategy would rely substantially on internally generated cash, reflecting the strength of its existing operations and cash-generating capacity.

In the 12 months to June 2026, Dangote Cement recorded revenue of $3.1bn, representing a 22 per cent year-on-year increase. Its cash conversion stood at 89 per cent, while return on capital employed reached 68 per cent during the period.

The company’s financial performance has also remained strong in naira terms. For the first half of 2026, Dangote Cement reported profit before tax of N981.39bn, up 34.43 per cent from N730.03bn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025. Profit after tax rose 22.69 per cent to N638.53bn.

The group’s wider investment plan is expected to include further expansion of the Dangote Refinery, with its capacity targeted to rise towards 1.4 million barrels per day. The company is also pursuing gas and LNG projects and additional industrial investments across Africa.

Dangote Cement’s expansion includes projects such as the proposed six-million-tonne-per-year plant at Itori in Ogun State, which is expected to strengthen the company’s production base as demand for cement and construction materials grows across the continent.

The group is also increasingly positioning its businesses around export earnings and geographically diversified operations. Management expects a larger share of revenue to be generated in foreign currency as its African expansion gathers pace.

The scale of the investment programme is underpinned by the group’s broader Vision 2030 strategy, which includes a target of more than $30bn in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation by 2030 alongside the $100bn revenue objective.

For Dangote Cement, the strategy represents a combination of capacity expansion and financial discipline, with strong operating cash flows expected to support investment while maintaining the company’s balance-sheet strength.

The wider Dangote Group is therefore positioning its 2030 strategy around expanding industrial capacity, increasing exports and using the cash generated by established businesses to finance further growth across Africa.

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