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Aftermath of Fubara’s declaration: why a guber bid remains unlikely

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Fubara

An analysis suggests Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s possible 2027 governorship ambition faces political, legal and structural challenges in Rivers State

Kayode Adebiyi 

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The political atmosphere in Rivers State has once again been stirred following the recent press release by Governor Siminalayi Fubara, in which he reportedly clarified that he is not participating in the APC governorship primary ahead of the 2027 election.

Also read: Roy Murray-Bruce Named Chairman of Silverbird Group

Expectedly, the development has triggered a wave of reactions among political observers and supporters. Some, driven more by emotion than political realism, have already begun speculating that Governor Fubara may eventually defect to another political platform, including fringe or emerging parties, to pursue a governorship ambition in 2027.

But such assumptions appear more emotional than strategic.

Anyone who has carefully observed Governor Fubara’s antecedents, disposition, and political conduct would understand why such a move remains highly improbable.

This is not to diminish his intellectual capacity or professional accomplishments. By every indication, Governor Fubara appears to be a brilliant, chartered accountant whose rise through the civil service reflects competence, discipline, and administrative excellence. His educational background and career trajectory speak for themselves.

However, excellence in bureaucracy does not automatically translate into political dexterity.

Fubara’s natural makeup appears more aligned with the world he occupied before politics thrust him into executive leadership: a highly educated, career driven technocrat who rose through an organised bureaucratic structure to become the Rivers State Accountant-General through diligence and competence and would ordinarily retire quietly and honourably after distinguished service.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

But it also says something important about political temperament.

Politics, particularly Rivers politics, is not the civil service. It is not governed merely by procedure, technical expertise, or professional competence.

It is a jungle of competing interests, shifting alliances, betrayals, power calculations, and survival instincts.

It demands tactical patience, emotional restraint, strategic thinking, and, above all, an understanding that power is rarely exercised emotionally.

This is precisely why the suggestion that Governor Fubara would independently leave for another political party and mount a fierce governorship battle in 2027 appears farfetched.

But even beyond questions of political temperament, there is now a significant legal and procedural hurdle: the Electoral Act 2026.

The new electoral framework has substantially narrowed the pathway for opportunistic political defections and last-minute political realignments.

Political parties are now required to submit membership registers to INEC well ahead of their primaries, and only individuals whose names appear in those registers can validly participate as aspirants.

In practical terms, the old political culture where a politician simply loses out in one platform and suddenly migrates to another to secure an election ticket has become considerably more difficult.

This means that even if Governor Fubara were hypothetically inclined to pursue a governorship ambition through another platform, the legal pathway is no longer as flexible as it once was. Timing, party membership, compliance with INEC regulations, and pre-established political structures now matter far more than before.

Yet even this legal reality is only part of the story.

The deeper issue remains political disposition.

The stakes in Rivers politics are extraordinarily high. It is not a terrain for reluctant combatants or political idealists. It rewards organisation, resilience, tactical aggression, and the ability to survive prolonged political warfare.

And if there is one thing recent history has shown, it is that Governor Fubara does not appear naturally wired for that kind of politics.

It is difficult to forget that barely six months into office, he openly found himself in conflict with the very political establishment that produced him, including the Rivers State House of Assembly and the power bloc that facilitated his emergence.

For those who understand the laws of power, this development was always curious.

Political history teaches that a governor handpicked by an entrenched political structure must tread carefully, dine with a long spoon, consolidate quietly, and, most importantly, secure political survival by securing his second term ticket before attempting to assert full independence. Timing, in politics, is often just as important as ambition.

Yet Governor Fubara appeared to move against entrenched interests almost immediately he got into office.

To some, this reflected courage and principle.

To others, it exposed an incomplete understanding of how power is acquired, managed, preserved, and strategically deployed within deeply structured political systems.

That distinction matters.

Because the same political instincts required to survive a confrontation with an established power bloc are the same instincts needed to independently build a political structure strong enough to contest and win a governorship election in Rivers State without the backing of a formidable political machine.

That is no easy task.

Rivers politics is not for the faint hearted. It is not won by sentiment. It is sustained through strategic alliances, political endurance, and calculated patience.

From all indications, Governor Fubara appears more suited to structured governance than the brutal, unpredictable realities of survival politics.

Again, this should not be mistaken for an attack on his intelligence or competence. Not every effective administrator is necessarily built for the rough edges of power politics.

Some people excel within organised institutions. Others thrive in political combat.

They are not always the same thing.

Which is why the idea that Governor Fubara would suddenly emerge as an independent political war general under another smaller platform in 2027 appears, at least for now, highly unlikely.

In Rivers politics, ambition alone is never enough.

Disposition matters. Timing matters. Structure matters.

Also read: Roy Murray-Bruce Named Chairman of Silverbird Group

And above all, political instinct matters.

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Tinubu’s Message To Ogun Politicians: Gbenga Daniel Is No Ordinary Ally

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By Folake Adeyemi,

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Politics rewards those who show up when it matters. The appointment of Senator Gbenga Daniel as Deputy Zonal Coordinator I (South West) of the Contact and Mobilisation Directorate of the APC Presidential Campaign Council is, in my view, a case of the right man being handed the right assignment.

Also read: GFF@25: OGD Medical Outreach Targets 15,000 Beneficiaries Across Ogun East

Consider the timing. Ogun State politics is currently thick with intrigue, rival camps and loud posturing. In such seasons, a leader’s actions say more than his supporters’ press statements.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has, once again, spoken through action: Senator Daniel is his friend and ally, and he is trusted with one of the most sensitive committees in the campaign. Those still trying to read political tea leaves in Ogun would do well to read this one clearly.

The Contact and Mobilisation Directorate is not ceremonial. It is where goodwill is converted into Permanent Voter Cards, and where PVCs are converted into votes.

With Borno State Governor, Prof. Babagana Zulum, leading the committee, the party has signalled that it takes this assignment seriously.

For the South West, the message is plain: the region must deliver for the President, whose lasting impact depends on the votes it brings.

Daniel is well suited to that task. He is a former Governor of Ogun State and the Senator representing Ogun East, but his political weight has never stopped at the boundaries of one senatorial district. It is felt across Ogun and throughout the South West.

He also knows national campaigns from the inside, having served as Campaign Director-General for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. That is not experience one acquires from the sidelines.

Nor is he a politician who surfaces only at election time. Through the BATOGD Movement, which he founded, he is currently running an unprecedented medical outreach, and he is known for economic empowerment programmes that touch ordinary lives.

Mobilisation works best when it is built on genuine presence in communities, and that is exactly what he brings.

He will not work alone. Niyi Adebayo, Segun Oni and Akinwunmi Ambode share the zonal leadership with him, and each has points to prove.

The South West team is well prepared and well recommended, and the healthy competition among these political veterans may well be the region’s biggest asset.

The challenge now is delivery. Appointments are easy to celebrate; results are what history records.

Also read: GFF@25: OGD Medical Outreach Targets 15,000 Beneficiaries Across Ogun East

If Senator Daniel brings his experience, his grassroots network and his reputation as a mobiliser to bear on this task, the South West will have little reason to fear for the outcome.

For now, one conclusion stands: Gbenga Daniel is a leader to reckon with.

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Don’t Be Deceived, Even Sen Dickson Has A Price

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THERE have been low-quality rumours, and preponderous propaganda circulating that Senator Henry Seriake Dickson has been meeting at unholy hours with the All Progressives Congress with the sole intention to sell the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his flock.

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It is not true. Those regurgitating these stale tales sourced from the same origins which have challenged NDC, castigated its candidates, and tested things NDC in court, have refused to understand that NDC is not for sale. No matter the price.

The rumours and blackmail are admissions that the election that Tinubu thinks he has enough “strategies” to win, will be fiercely contested by NDC with the Peter Obi and Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso partnership which thoroughly terrifies Tinubu reducing him to new incoherences.

What those attacking Dickson would fail to disclose is what they have offered, just as they are desperate to have him in the ruling party. He has always said, which he did again when he left the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, with regrets over the party’s unwillingness to resolve its issues, that joining Tinubu’s party was never an option.

A further lie told about Dickson is that he cannot be bought – he has no price. Again, Dickson has a price which they miss when they parlay their desperation to have him with an eye on the devastation of the common good.
Dickson stands with the people and for the people. He has come too far in this to ruin his politics with promises of positions and elite prosperity.

He would not be allies with those who entrench policies that cast Nigerians into deeper poverty, scramble for Nigeria’s resources as if the country has a few more years before expiring yet broadcast fairy tales of their nationalism and sacrifices.

When Dickson calls himself a federalist and progressive, he is not throwing words about or striving to grab the next headline. His political and personal life has built bridges across Nigeria. Those bridges are useful as he aspires for a Nigeria where no man is oppressed.

Dickson has always stood for service, inclusiveness, the common good, governance that cares for many, and the use of education as a pulley to get millions of our people out of grinding poverty.

As a young lawyer practising in Port Harcourt, he experienced, first-hand, how governments – military or civilian – were not about the welfare of the people. The Ogoni, and Ijaw struggle for their voices to be heard in decisions on the use of the oil and gas resources that wasted their environments, hit him harder with government’s killing of Ken Saro-Wiwa and his kinsmen without waiting for the appeal window in the matter to close.

“I am not one who is scared of standing alone or afraid of saying NO when NO is the right answer. My political life is defined by service, courage of conviction, compassion, patriotism, consensus-building, and steadfastness, while living a simple life,” Dickson said of himself.

Those qualities are the price of Dickson for which he has won prizes. Those who have such convictions and are interested in investing in searches for solutions that would improve the conditions of Nigerians and enhance Nigeria’s global standing are his allies.

Dickson’s presence in politics is primed around the people, service, integrity, prudent use of state resources for greatest good of the people, and accountability.

He is also shameless about bringing up the ruinous mining practices in the Niger Delta which while delivering billions of Dollars to federal coffers have diseased many places in the region and made them uninhabitable.

In August 2025, John Tucker Mugabi Sentamu, now 76, Ugandan, retired Anglican Bishop, and Life Peer, who was Archbishop of York and Primate of England from 2005 to 2020, delivered the summary of the report on the almost irredeemable devastation of the environment in Bayelsa State and the Niger Delta, in a quivering voice that appeared propelled by anger at what human beings can do to other human beings so they could profit from oil and gas exploitation.

Dickson commissioned that investigation when he was Governor of Bayelsa State and required scientific evidence for his duels to draw Nigeria’s attention to how oil and gas exploration was killing the peoples of the Niger Delta. He expected Nigeria to reverse the situation.

Nigeria has not cared even with available weighty evidence like the Sentamu report. Pollution of the Niger Delta remains a marginal issue for the multiple agencies assumed to cater for the region.

Oil was at the centre of a key decision that Dickson made in 2002 when he left the Alliance for Democracy, AD, the legacy party under which Tinubu was Governor of Lagos for eight years. AD transmuted to Action Congress of Nigeria and eventually All Progressives Congress.

In 1998, as pioneer Chairman of AD in Bayelsa State, and its National Legal Adviser, by 2002, Dickson built the party with lean resources to produce a Senator, a Member in the House of Representatives, and three seats in the State House of Assembly in 1999 due to his dedication, commitment, strategy and the people’s belief in him.

He disagreed with the national leadership of the AD after Chief Bola Ige, the Attorney-General of the Federation, an AD member, instituted the onshore/offshore case which was against the agreement made with Dickson and his associates when they chose AD over other parties.

Senator Dickson considered the suit against the interests of Bayelsa, the Ijaw Nation and the Niger Delta, and that his membership of AD was therefore no longer tenable.

The latest version of Dickson that encapsulates his growth over the years was laid bare at the 10 May 2026 inaugural National Convention of NDC, a party he formed with like minds to liberate Nigerians from the vice grip of the All Progressives Congress.

“We have assembled at a defining moment in the life of our nation – a time of worsening insecurity, economic hardship, deepening poverty, growing national division, and declining public trust in government and institutions.

Our duty in the NDC is to reverse these dangerous trends,” Dickson, NDC’s National Leader told delegates at the very successful, inaugural National Convention of NDC in Abuja.

“The NDC was founded as an ideological party determined to do politics differently – politics of service, politics of dialogue, politics of consensus-building, politics of inclusion, politics of respect for all Nigerians, politics of unity rather than division, and politics that restores dignity to our people and pride to our nation.

“All of us gathered here today have a long history of sacrifice and service, particularly within the opposition. We have endured intimidation, propaganda, deprivation, blackmail, harassment, and countless obstacles in our democratic journey. And if those pressures did not break us before, they will not break us now, and they will never break us,” Dickson said, pointing out that NDC was a product of the dogged years of focus, vision, integrity transparency, sacrifices, that are the ingredients of his politics.

Politics for the people, politics of service, not to self, but to the people. Politics that protects those without voices or who when they speak, louder interests drown their concerns, remain his message.

Dickson has nothing to do with the ruling party. His focus is to work with friends and allies to remove the burdens that the ruling party has unapologetically heaped on Nigerians.

The realisation that Tinubu’s days are numbered, is leading him and his supporters to unleash all sorts of distractions on the opposition as “Tinubu must go” appears on apparels and in native songs that echo the agonies of our peoples across regions and religions.

Finally…
TINUBU keeps shifting the goalposts. From crashing transport fares to celebration of the CNG buses, and reduction of fuel prices at the sprinkling of NNPC stations across Nigeria. Nigerians are not fooled. They will vote out Tinubu in 2027.

WATCH the kidding and napping of the Tinubu government over 42 school kids abducted in Askira Uba Local Government Area of Borno State since 15 May 2026, 149 days. Nothing is being done about it, as Amnesty International keeps reminding Nigerians.

PARENTS of 20 NYSC members who were kidnapped on the ever-busy Onitsha-Owerri Road, on their way to Abia State to commence service, claimed they paid at least N5 million each as ransom to secure the release of their wards. Imo State Government insists no ransom was paid. Who then in Owerri organised the collection of the ransom and advised the parents to convert the money to US Dollars to enhance portability?

PLEASE answer this question honestly: How has Tinubu’s government improved your life?

MY condolences to families, friends, and the Nigerian Air Force, NAF, on the death of officers and civilians who were in its craft that crashed in Igbokoda, Ondo State. May the Almighty rest them. The calls for auditing of maintenance records of NAF’s fleet deserve attention.

ISIGUZO is a major commentator on minor issues.

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Nysc: Preserve The Objectives, Review The Mechanism

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The kidnapping of 20 prospective National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members travelling to their orientation camps on October 1 – Nigeria’s independence anniversary – should make Nigerians pause and ask a fundamental question: Is the present structure of compulsory national service still appropriate for the Nigeria of today?

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Thankfully, the corps members, according to media reports, were released six days later at Amakohia Ubi Village, Imo State, by the Nigeria Police Force, in collaboration with other security agencies, although there are allegations that ransoms were paid. To be clear, I align myself with the objectives of the NYSC.

However, there is an urgent need to review the mechanism through which those objectives are pursued in view of the profound changes in Nigeria’s security, infrastructure and socioeconomic environment. The federal government has approved a package of reforms which is a welcome development, but it should not end there – a serious public debate about NYSC’s future is urgently needed.

The NYSC was established in 1973, in the aftermath of the Nigerian Civil War, with an important national purpose.It was conceived as an instrument for rebuilding trust, promoting national integration and encouraging young Nigerians to live, work and serve outside their immediate cultural and geographical environments.

That was a bold and visionary idea. For generations of Nigerian graduates, NYSC has provided an opportunity to experience another part of the country, make new friends across ethnic and religious boundaries, contribute to communities and develop a deeper understanding of Nigeria’s diversity.

The institution therefore deserves neither sentimental protection nor casual dismissal.

Nigeria has changed

The Nigeria of 1973 is not the Nigeria of 2026. When NYSC was introduced, travelling between states did not carry the same level of kidnapping risk that Nigerians now confront on some highways. Today, insecurity has transformed the meaning of interstate travel and national service for young graduates.

Kidnapping has become a major threat on some roads while banditry, armed robbery and other forms of criminality have made some routes particularly dangerous. The deterioration of major highways has also compounded the problem.

For NYSC participants, this is especially troubling because their movements are not entirely voluntary. They are mobilised, posted and expected to report to designated locations which creates a peculiar responsibility for government.

When the state requires a young graduate to travel hundreds of kilometres to another part of the country, it assumes a corresponding responsibility for that person’s safety. A young Nigerian should not have to choose between obeying a statutory national-service requirement and protecting himself or herself from a credible security threat. That is at the heart of the matter.

National service should not become a national security risk

Besides the compelling argument that the NYSC scheme should be retained, national integration should not require exposing young people to unnecessary danger.

If a highway is notorious for kidnapping, why should a group of young graduates be forced to travel through it simply because their posting letter says they must report to an orientation camp hundreds of kilometres away?

It is sad that inter-state travel has become longer and more hazardous primarily because our roads are badly maintained. Criminals know when large numbers of young Nigerians will be travelling to orientation camps, making them predictable targets.

Every time a prospective corps member is kidnapped, families experience an agonising period of uncertainty. Parents wait for information; siblings panic, and families may be forced into ransom negotiations and payments. The young people themselves, who are supposed to be embarking on an exciting transition into professional life, suddenly become victims of a security crisis they did not create.

There is something fundamentally wrong when national service becomes a source of anxiety for parents. It is like sending their children on a suicide mission.

The roads matter

The security debate cannot be separated from the condition of Nigeria’s roads. A bad road in an insecure environment becomes both an infrastructure and security challenge. Vehicles travelling on poorly maintained roads move slowly while broken-down vehicles become stranded. Traffic bottlenecks create opportunities for criminals, forcing drivers to stop at unsuitable locations. Long journeys become overnight journeys.

A functional road network is therefore part of national security. The federal government and state governments must recognise that the safety of Nigerians travelling between states depends not only on police presence but also on the quality of the roads, availability of emergency services, communication networks and rapid-response capability.

For NYSC members, the challenge is even greater because their movements are structured and predictable. The solution cannot simply be to deploy more security personnel every time corps members travel. That may be necessary in the short term, but it does not address the underlying question of whether the current deployment architecture remains sensible with horrible roads.

 

Review the mechanism

There is a danger in allowing the debate to become a simple choice between “keep NYSC” and “abolish NYSC.” That is too simplistic. A better approach, in my view, is to preserve the objective while reviewing the mechanism to achieve the same objectives.

The current mechanism is the compulsory deployment of graduates across state boundaries for a year, including movement to orientation camps and places of primary assignment. As part of the review, we can introduce a more flexible deployment system based on security assessments. States and local government areas could be categorised according to independently verified security conditions. Deployment to areas classified as high-risk could be suspended until adequate security conditions are restored.

Another option is to reduce compulsory inter-state movement while creating stronger incentives for voluntary cross-regional service. The programme could also incorporate more local and digital service opportunities, particularly for graduates whose skills can be deployed remotely.

There is also a case for shorter orientation periods and better-organised transportation for those who must travel across state boundaries. Instead of leaving young graduates to make long interstate journeys independently, the government can provide secure, coordinated transportation to orientation camps.

Insurance, emergency evacuation arrangements and compensation mechanisms should also be strengthened.

We should not throw away what works

It is important to acknowledge that NYSC has contributed significantly to Nigerian society. Teachers, doctors, engineers, lawyers, journalists, administrators and entrepreneurs have served communities far from their places of origin through the scheme.

On a personal note, I did my youth service in Awka, in the old Anambra State before the creation of Enugu State, and I enjoyed the warm reception accorded me throughout my stay.

In many rural communities, corps members have filled important gaps in education, healthcare, agriculture and community development. For some Nigerians, the NYSC experience remains one of the few structured opportunities to live outside their ethnic or regional environment and build relationships across Nigeria’s diversity – a valuable experience indeed.

At a time when ethnic and regional identities sometimes dominate public discourse, a programme that encourages young Nigerians to see themselves as members of one national community should not be discarded.
But precisely because the objective is valuable, the mechanism must be protected from becoming obsolete. Institutions survive when they adapt.

Moving forward

A review of the scheme should examine the programme’s objectives, cost, security implications, deployment patterns, economic value and relevance to the modern labour market.

If the government cannot guarantee reasonable security for interstate mobilisation, it should have the courage to suspend deployment along dangerous routes or into high-risk areas. This should not be interpreted as an attack on NYSC; it is an invitation to save it from becoming trapped in the assumptions of another era.

What does national service mean in 21st-century Nigeria? We can achieve both national unity and public safety at the same time, but the government should prioritise improving inadequate infrastructure and strengthening our security architecture.

NYSC was created because Nigeria needed a mechanism to bring its young people together after a devastating national conflict. More than five decades later, Nigeria still needs national cohesion, but the country also needs to recognise that the environment in which NYSC operates has changed dramatically.

We should preserve the spirit of national service without treating its existing structure as untouchable. No national programme should be more important than the safety of the citizens it was created to serve.
The time has therefore come to redesign the NYSC scheme and make it fit for purpose. That is the conversation we should be having and it should begin now.

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